Jekyll2017-02-26T01:58:33+00:00https://ict4sd.github.io/ArmedConflict/ArmedConflict/Armed Conflict AnalyticsHistorical data analytics of armed conflicts worldwide to better understand their characteristics and find patterns in causes and solutions.Armed Conflict Analytics2016-09-20T12:00:00+00:002016-09-20T12:00:00+00:00https://ict4sd.github.io/ArmedConflict/ArmedConflict/2016/09/20/Project_CONFLICT<h2 id="contributors">Contributors</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.infoseeking.org/"><img src="https://ict4sd.github.io/ArmedConflict/img/partners/rutgers.png" alt="The InfoSeeking Lab at the School of Communication & Information - Rutgers University" /></a></p>
<p>Dr. Chirag Shah - Rutgers University<br />
Associate Professor of Information Science<br />
Affiliate member of Computer Science</p>
<p>Kevin Albertson - Rutgers University<br />
Master’s student - Computer Science and Mathematics</p>
<h2 id="introduction">Introduction</h2>
<p>An armed conflict is defined as a contested incompatibility which concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths (Wallensteen, & Sollenberg, 2001). With this proposed study the researcher aims to provide the academic community with the most comprehensive structured event data available on organized violence in the post-1989 world involving, and finally to provide some predictions about conflict dynamics of the locations and the effects of armed violence, in the form of deaths. Since middle-east is the current hot zone, where every day numerous people are losing their lives due to armed conflicts involving governments, sectarian groups, rebels etc., the researcher has decided to contain this proposed study involving only middle-eastern countries.</p>
<h2 id="literature-review">Literature Review</h2>
<p>In the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), Brundtland has summarized a common view of armed conflict as:
Nations have often fought to assert or resist control over war materials, energy supplies, land, river basins, sea passages and other key environmental resources.
Similar view of tussle over control of natural resources as the primary reason behind conflicts has been echoed in many other scholars’ work. Thus, Renner et al. (1991) claimed that “throughout human history, but particularly since the system of sovereign nation states, struggles over access to and control over natural resources … have been a root cause of tension and conflict” and that “history provides numerous examples of how states and nations were destabilized by environmental collapse leading to famine, migration, and rebellion.” Similarly citing the example of Pacific war (1879-84) between Chile and Peru over guano deposits, Brock (1991) asserted that “control over natural resources has always been important in enabling a country to wage war.”
In the early 1970s, there was an emergence of environmental issues on the international
political agenda, since then there has been increasing concern that environmental disruption is
likely to increase the number of disputes originating from competition for scarce resources
(Gleditsch, 1998). This view was echoed in the speech of previous Norwegian Defense Minister
Johan Jørgen Holst (1989) when he cautioned the world that environmental stress was likely to
become an increasingly potent contributing factor to major conflicts between nations. Similarly,
he then Secretary General of the Habitat conference in 1996 told participants that “the scarcity of
water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations” (Lonergan, 1997).
More recent variety of territorial conflict concerns the economic zone, a matter of dispute
between most countries which are at the close vicinity of the sea and where tiny islands can
sometimes become monumental national interest because of their consequences for controlling the
shipping lane at sea. Thus, there are no less than six claimants to all or part of the Spratly Islands
in the South China Sea (Denoon & Brams, 1997), where the use of force anytime cannot be ruled
out.
As the above literature review suggest, all these previous studies has addressed conflict as
the outcome variable and focused on identification of the primary factors behind the conflicts.
However, one of the significant drawback in this line of work is that the duration of the conflict is
not taken into account. Essentially, these studies do not differentiate between prolonged conflicts
between nations (e.g., Iraq-Iran war, 1980-1988) and lone-wolf terror attack (e.g., Toulouse terror
attack, 2012). To overcome this, the present study proposes to consider the duration of the conflict as the primary outcome variable and hopes to identify if the geographical location is a contributing
factor behind the duration of the conflict.</p>
<h2 id="references">References</h2>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Brams, S. J. (1997). Fair division: A new approach to the Spratly Islands controversy. International Negotiation, 2(2), 303-329.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Brock, L. (1991). Peace through parks: the environment on the peace research agenda. Journal of Peace Research, 28(4), 407-423.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Brundtland, G., Khalid, M., Agnelli, S., Al-Athel, S., Chidzero, B., Fadika, L., & Singh, M. (1987). Our common future. World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Croicu, M., & Sundberg, R. (2015). UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset Codebook Version 4.0. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4), 523-532.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Croicu, M., & Sundberg, R. (2016). UCDP GED Codebook version 5.0, Department of
Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Gleditsch, N. P. (1998). Armed conflict and the environment: A critique of the literature. Journal of peace research, 35(3), 381-400.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Lonergan, S. (1997). Water resources and conflict: Examples from the Middle East. In Conflict and the Environment (pp. 375-384). Springer Netherlands.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Sundberg, R., & Melander, E. (2013). Introducing the UCDP georeferenced event dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 50(4), 523-532.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Wallensteen, P., & Sollenberg, M. (2001). Armed Conflict, 1989-2000. Journal of Peace Research, 38(5), 629-644.</p>
</li>
</ul>Soumik Mandal, PhD student Information Science, Rutgers UniversityContributors